SHORT COVERING SEEN IN MARKET

Nifty has done a gap down opening on Wednesday morning following the international clues. An intraday low of 4990 occurred around 3:00 pm and Nifty returned to its higher note of 5062 level after that. Realty stocks suffered in this dip, LT ,  Sintex ,Suzlon  have made fresh 52 week’s low yesterday. Nifty has taken support from 5000 level, it is a crucial support for Nifty, closing below 5000 level may cause of more weakness, and Nifty may taste 4700 level again. Nifty 5000 strike rate put has huge short positions so far. Traders are seen to cover their shorts at this level. U.S market closed with further weakness on Wednesday night. Asian markets are trading with lower note. SGX Nifty is on 5015 level. Avoid opening new short positions on this level. Only trading in stocks is advised. 

NIFTY IS NEAR LOWER TRADING BAND

Nifty has not taken support from 5100 level and broken down below this level on Tuesday. New short positions were aggressively opened over 5100 level in Nifty. Nifty closed its intraday low level at 5054 after opening at 5153 level. Lower trading range is shifting to 4800 from 5000 level but Nifty 5000 strike rate put has biggest short position so far. Nifty has another support near 5000 traders may cover their short positions on this level. U.S. markets were flat on Tuesday’s session while Asian markets trading flat to negative. SGX Nifty is trading now at 5057 level almost flat. If Nifty close below 5000 level, Nifty may taste 4800 level in few trading days. New short positions may open in Sintex Industries at any rise in stock short term target is Rs 92.

5100 IS A SUPPORT FOR NIFTY

Following the negative trend, Nifty closed down 20 point yesterday. After the strong clues from international markets Nifty opened with higher note but could not sustain over 5200 level and Nifty washed out its earlier gain closed 5148 near an intraday low. Traders were comfortable to short sell 5200 strike rate call with huge volumes in Nifty option. Now 5200 and 5250 levels became the strong resistance for Nifty. Quarterly results had depressed the market sentiments and European markets clues affect the Indian market gains. Now Nifty is oversold in hourly charts and 5100 immediate support. U.S. markets closed in negative area and Asian markets are following the trend.SGX Nifty is trading 5123 level. Nifty may bounce from 5100 level in today’s session. If European markets support the positive sentiment, Nifty may buy near 5100 level with the strict stop loss of 5080 and target may 5200 for today only.

NIFTY MAY BOUNCE AFTER ITALY’ S NEWS

Nifty has closed at 5168 after tasting an intraday low 5142. Nifty has succeeded to close above 5150 level on Friday, a positive sentiment continued above this level. Nifty had not breached its support area on Friday’s session amid the European bad news. 5200 strike rate call has been short sold while 5100 strike rate put had a lot of action on Friday, it confirmed traders are positive above 5100 level and 5200 may act as a resistance level for Nifty. Sudden news came from Italy and Europe eases, U.S.  Markets climbed around 2% on Friday. Asian markets are following the International clues and jumped in early morning on today’s session. SGX Nifty is trading at 5260 level. Nifty may face resistance around 5300 level. If Nifty sustains 5300 level for 2 to 3 trading sessions, Nifty may rally more than 100 points in few trading days. Only risky traders may short sell Nifty at 5260 level early morning with the strict stop loss of 5320 and target may 5200 -5180 for today.

NIFTY MAY OPEN ON ITS STRONG SUPPORT

Nifty had tried to sustain over 5300 level in last couple of trading days but Nifty had not succeeded to remain over this level. After high volatility in markets, Nifty took direction from European markets and closed 5221 level on Wednesday near day’s low. U.S markets tumbled over 3% after Greece and Italy news. It was holiday in markets on Thursday. U.S. markets take some rebound after relaxation in Euro zone. SGX Nifty is currently trading on near 5180 level; Nifty may open on this level in Indian markets. 5180 is the strong support for Nifty. Nifty may rebound near this level and take final direction after Europe opening. Put – call ratio for Nifty 5200 strike rate is below than 1 so far, which indicates that Nifty may take support near 5200 level. Nifty may weak after closing below 5180 and short selling may come in Nifty. Nifty may only buy over 5225 level with the strict stop-loss of 5175 and target may 5300 level for today.

CAIRN INDIA CLOSED ABOVE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE PRICE

Nifty was volatile and range bound on Tuesday. Nifty was trading in negative zone while CAIRN INDIA has done positive brake-out with huge volumes. Stock was consolidating between Rs 296 to 310 from few weeks. Lots of news came in stock since 2010 and it was volatile so far. Now stock has succeeded to close above its 200 day moving average line on Tuesday’s session. Cairn has another resistance at Rs 336 but upside rally is looking very strong and stock may breach this resistance level in next few trading sessions. Cairn India may buy on current level with the trading stop loss of Rs 306 and stock may touch Rs 350 in few weeks. Nifty may also buy on this level with the strict stop loss of 5240 and target may 5375 for today’s session.

NIFTY MAY OPEN ABOVE 5300 LEVEL

Nifty had opened 5320 on Friday and were trading below this level in entire session. After the bailout package news published for Greece U.S. markets gained last night. Asian markets are trading flat in morning. SGX Nifty is trading again at 5320 level and market may open near this level in today’s session. Nifty has strong support at 5225 - 5200 level and a minor resistance at 5335 level. Nifty 5200 and 5300 strike rate’s puts had added new sort positions in Friday’s session; it confirms strong upside rally will come in next few days.5200 strike rate’s put may short sell for today with the strict stop loss in Nifty option. 

NIFTY MAY TASTE 5400 AGAIN

Amid the referendum plan for the bail-out package of Greece, Nifty has consolidated between 5200 level to 5300 level in last couple of trading days. Nifty has taken support from 5200 level and closed 5265 level on Thursday near day’s high. Nifty’s 5200 strike rate put has added 426000 shares in short side in Nifty option, it shows 5200 is the strong support for Nifty in short-term while 5400 is the strong resistance. U.S. markets have gained around 2% in Thursday’s session and Asian markets are trading higher today. SGX Nifty is trading at 5365 level early morning. Nifty may open near this level. Realty stocks rocked on Thursday. DLF may positional buy above 251 level with the strict stop loss of 232 and near term target is 275 -295. Profit booking is advised in Nifty near 5400 level. 

GREECE BLEEDING AGAIN NIFTY MAY TAKE SUPPORT AT 5180 LEVEL

Greece official has announced a referendum on latest bailout package on Monday evening. European markets suffered from the news and tumbled around 7% last night. Wall Street also sank around 3% on Tuesday’s session. Asian markets are trading below from previous close. Nifty has closed near day’s low on 5260 on Tuesday. Nifty has strong support near 5200 level. Strong short positions have developed on 5200 and 5100 strike rate put in Nifty option on previous session that marks Nifty may remain above 5150 and 5200 level on Wednesday. Nifty may open near 5200 level today, short covering may occur after Europe’s sign. Nifty may buy if it sustains 5200 level after Europe’s opening.

5300 AND 5250 ARE THE STRONG SUPPORT FOR NIFTY

Nifty has opened around 5340 and made an intraday low 5317 and closed near this level at 5326 on Monday. Nifty 5400 strike rate call has been short sold by the traders and while traders are comfortable above 5300 level. Nifty 5300 strike rate put has the huge short positions, made by big traders. Hourly chart of Nifty shows a support level around 5250. U.S. and European markets sank again due to European debit crises. Asian markets also following the Wall Street and trading lower. Singapore Nifty is trading near 5300 level. Nifty may positional buy near 5250 level with the stop-loss of 5180 level for the target of 5415.

NIFTY HAS TASTED 200-DAY AVERAGE PRICE

Following the international markets Nifty has opened with huge gap-up on Friday. Nifty has tasted an intraday high at 5399 and was trading around 5350 level whole time. Metal stocks rocked because of heavy short covering after Europe eases. Nifty has faced resistance around 5400 level on its 200-day moving average. Nifty had breached its 200-day moving average on 2th may 2011 and had not closed above this line so far. U.S. markets were flat to negative on Friday’s session while Asian markets are also trading negative in morning. SGX Nifty is trading at 5380 level. Nifty is little overbought at this stage. Nifty has another strong resistance at 5415 level. A trend line is occurred at 5415 level and 200 –day moving average also on this level as showing in daily chart of Nifty. Nifty may face weakness at this level.  Market is expected to trade flat for today’s session. Trading in stocks is advised for today.

CRUDE OIL IS FACING RESISTANCE AT $ 94.65

After the Europe zone positive news, all the equities and commodities have pulled up in last four trading sessions. Crude oil also pulled over its resistance level around $90 international markets and breached its 100-day moving average price. Crude oil is now trading around its 200-day moving average price and faced resistance before closing on Friday. Momentum indicator MACD is showing strong buy signal for crude oil. If Crude oil sustains $ 90 in few sessions, it may breach $ 95 and taste the $ 100 once again. In Indian market, Crude oil is trading over 200-day moving average price and has a strong support of Rs. 4371 level. Buying in Crude oil is advised at this level with the strict stop-loss of $89.50.

NIFTY HAS BROKEN-OUT UPSIDE

Nifty has closed above its strong resistance level on Wednesday in a special session of Muhurt trading. Thursday was the holyday of Indian markets while U.S. and European markets gained almost 3% - 5% after the bailout package has been announced of around $1.4 trillion by the private bonds holders of Greek debit and recapitalizes European banks. Euro jumps a huge one day gain after March 2009. Asian markets are also gaining in early morning .Singapore Nifty is trading at 5447 level around 206 points up closing of Indian market .Nifty has 200-day moving average on 5410 level in daily charts. Closing above the 5410 level will sustain uptrend in Nifty. Auto and IT sectors may outperform in this rally. Profit booking may come on higher levels. Avoid short sell in Nifty now.

NIFTY MAY BREAK 5200 LEVEL IN NOVEMBER SERIES

It is expiry of Nifty future and option for October series today. Heavy call writing in 5200’s strike rate marked a strong resistance level for Nifty. Nifty could not breach this level in entire series. A range shifting from 5200 level to 5400 level has seen in November series as Nifty option data shows. Ahead of the European announcement, Asian markets climbed sharply on Monday. After the gap-up opening Nifty has faced resistance 5150 level again and closed 5098 level near day’s low. New shorts have been added in 5200 strike rate’s call in Nifty options. Profit booking is seen in 5100 strike rate’s call. Nifty may expire between 5100 to 5200 levels on Tuesday. Wall Street added heavy gains second day in a row. Asian markets trading mix today. Singapore Nifty is trading flat and high volatility is expected today. Nifty may buy above 5200 level for the target of 5350 level. 

NIFTY MAY OPEN WITH GAP-UP

Nifty was volatile in Friday’s session and it was facing resistance at 5100 level. After the whole choppier session Nifty had closed at 5049 level near the day’s low. A strong opening of U.S. markets European markets climbed at evening. U.S. markets closed 2.31% up with one day biggest gain after October 2010.Asian markets trading up after the European leaders tried to assure market’s participants. SGX Nifty trading at 5100 level which is a resistance level and Nifty cannot breach 5100 – 5150 level without any huge positive trigger. U.S. can be another downgraded by moody or lynch. Bank nifty is also following the index and facing resistance 9850 levels. Nifty may take direction after opening the European markets. Nifty may volatile due to expiry in this week. Auto stocks may participate in the rally from this level. Buy only selected stocks with strict stop-loss.

COPPER OUTLOOK

After the sharp falling from Rs 429 Copper has touched Rs 332, which is its swing low. Copper has slower demand in international markets due to global uncertainty. Copper is showing a downtrend in daily charts and has a strong resistance at Rs 374 -380 levels. In weekly charts Copper is trading near 200-day moving average, which is making a support zone for Copper. If Copper breached $ 2.99 level at Comex then Copper may fall more at $2.45 level. In Indian market Copper has strong support at Rs. 330-326 levels. Copper may touch Rs. 300 if Copper breaches Rs 326 on Mcx. Copper may remain range bound between Rs. 332 to 375 levels. Only short sell is advised in Copper at higher level with the strict stop-loss of Rs. 380.

5100 LEVEL BECOMES A STRONG RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY

Nifty was facing resistance at 5150 level so far. Amid the European debit crises markets are choppier. Nifty is in the range of 5000 to 5150 from last couple of trading days. So many gaps are occurred near 5100 level in hourly chart of Nifty, which means Nifty has made a strong resistance area around 5100 to 5100 for it. There are not any strong triggers from International markets to lift Nifty upside and breach 5150 level in few days. U.S. markets were trading mix on Thursday night while Asian markets are flat. 5100 and 52000 strike rate’s calls have added more shorts in Nifty option. Momentum indicators are on its support but negative crossover in simple moving average lines mark weakness in Nifty. Avoid buying in Nifty at this level. Trade only selected stocks at this level. 

HERO MOTOCORP BUY ON DIPS

Hero Motocorp has reported net profit of Rs 604 Cr better than expectations in September quarter in 2011 while Rs 506 Cr was in same quarter last year. A 19.4% year t o year profit growth was posted by company and sales jumped 28% to Rs 5784 Cr from Rs 4511 Cr. Expenses of the company rose 29.6% to Rs 5190 Cr from Rs 4005 Cr because of depreciation increased 361% to  Rs 280 Cr from Rs 60.7 Cr during the same period last year. Hero Motocorp may outperform in FY 12. Stock has support on Rs 1930 level, currently stock is trading below 50 days moving average. Stock can buy for long –term. Target for the stock is Rs 2500 in 6 to 7 months.

NIFTY MAY REMAIN WEAK DUE TO GLOBLE WORRYS

European markets dropped after the little hope to fix the debit crises on Monday. Indian markets were consolidating amid the news but U.S. markets sank sharply after opening. Banks stocks are the big decliners in European markets. China showed Gross Domestic Product data 9.1% in third quarter, lower from expectations. Dow has fallen around 2% last night. Asian markets trading lower now. SGX Nifty wiped off 42 points and trading around 5080 levels. 5100 and 5200 strike rate’s call added more shorts in Nifty options on Monday, Which marks Nifty may remain weak for few days. Nifty has crucial support on 5050; decline below this level Nifty may cut off more 100 points. Nifty can be short sell below 5050 levels with strict stop-loss.

NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5180 TODAY

Strong signs from European and U.S. markets guide Nifty to touch its trading upper band around 5170.Amid the global economic doubt all the markets had dived. Because of small recovery in U.S. unemployment claim data and European debit crises, markets had rallied. Asian markets are following the Wall Street’s gain and trading higher. Singapore Nifty also trading higher on 5160, which is a strong resistance zone for Nifty. Technically Nifty has negative divergence in momentum indicators and a strong support at 5100 level for today. Nifty option data shows a range of 5100 to 5200 may be for two to three days. Closing above 5200 with high volume brake-out, Nifty may add more 100 points and it may taste 5300 level. Avoid trading in Nifty on these levels. Take position only in selected stocks.

HOW TO DO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF STOCK?

Fundamental analysis is a broad subject, it cannot describe in few words .Basically stock prices depend on market movement called momentum but Fundamentals are the ground for investing. In fundamental analysis, analysts review the business model, its competitors, earning growth, sales growth, management, debts and Future prospects of company. Here, some important facts are described briefly.

Business model and Management

This is the basic fact for analysis of a company. What is the business model of company? How does company earn money? What is the demand of product, which company sells? Answers of these questions will help to know about position and status of company in market. Growth of a company depends on its product and management. A strong management helps growth of company year by year.  

Financial statement

Financial statement of a company does the key role in analysis. If company reports the sales, profit and revenue growth year to year, the company is growing. Growing E.P.S. helps to increase the stock prices in markets. Expenses of company must grow with sales of company.

Price to Earnings Ratio

Price to earnings ratio acts the key role to know fair value of stock. Most of analysts trust it. A lower P/E and high profit growth companies are the choice of big traders. 

SILVER HAS RESISTANCE ON $ 32.50 - $ 33.50

Silver had fallen sharply from $ 40 to $ 26.15 in three trading sessions last month. After worst decline, Silver has bounced back and touched $ 33.10.Silver is trading near this level from few days. Silver was highly oversold, when it touched $ 26.15. Now Silver is trading in its resistance zone. Silver is in extreme downtrend in daily charts, it is trading below its 200 day’s moving average line. MACD is also confirming its downtrend in daily charts. In weekly charts Silver has taken support from its 100 day’s moving average and this is a strong/crucial support zone for long-term charts. MACD is showing weakness in weekly chart also. Any further decline in Silver prices below $ 26, it will confirm deep downtrend in Silver for long-term. Silver is also facing resistance around $ 33 area. Silver will have to close over this level to add more in its prices. Equity markets have recovered in all over world after the strong European clues, but Silver has not recovered so far. Any bad news from European markets may hit silver prices again. It may taste $ 26 in near term again. Silver may short sell on $ 32.50 level with the strict stop-loss of $33.50 in closing basis. For Indian markets stop-loss level is Rs 57000.

NIFTY MAY CONSOLIDATE BETWEEN 5000 to 5150 LEVEL

Strong rally of European and U.S. markets helped to pull Nifty upside. Nifty tossed 350 points from its bottom made in last week. Nifty has tasted 5150 once again, which is the upper band of the trading range of Nifty. Hourly chart of Nifty shows a strong resistance zone at 5160 -5200.Nifty may consolidate around this level for few days. Nifty 5200 strike rate’s call has maximum positions which mark that traders are not comfortable to pull Nifty over 5200 level now. Traders had added short positions in 5100 strike rate’s call on Thursday. U.S. markets mixed last night, while Asian markets are trading in negative zone. Fitch has downgraded four European banks and placed seven more banks to review for downgrading. European markets may remain weak after this news. Only short positions can be added at higher levels in Nifty.

RESULT ANALYSIS – INFOSYS

The second largest software company of India, Infosys has reported   9.72% growth in consolidated net profit for the September quarter Rs 1906 Cr against of Rs 1737 Cr in the same quarter of previous physical year. Company also has reported a revenue growth of 16.58%, from Rs 6947 Cr to Rs 8099 Cr. Infosys increased EPS  guidance  Rs 141- 143 from  Rs 128 -130 for FY 12 .Stock closed at  Rs 2679.35 on Wednesday at NSE. Price to Earnings Ratio of company is 18.86 for FY 12, which is comfortable for investing in stock. Stock has closed above its 100-day moving average line with high volume brake -out .Stock may touch Rs 2830 in few weeks. Buying is advised in Infosys. 

NIFTY HAS FACED RESISTANCE AT 5050 AGAIN

Strong signals from U.S. and European markets have forced Nifty to open a higher note .With gapping of 60 points Nifty has opened on its resistance zone around 5040 and could not comfort at this level. After a gap –up opening Nifty has made lower top and lower bottom in intraday on Monday.  The supply was coming at higher levels in Nifty. Today Nifty may consolidate between 4935 to 5000 level. Asian markets are showing weakness in early trading after indication of U.S. markets, which have mixed last night. Result season will start from Infosys today, which is the main trigger for Indian markets. Trading in stocks is advised on this stage only.

STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS FOR 12th OCTOBER

These stocks can buy with strict stop-loss.If stock open its first target then it can buy for second target.

STOCK	STOP-LOSS	TARGET	TARGET	TARGET
TATAMOTORS	174.65	177.85	179.45	181.95
BHARTIARTL	373.73	379.25	382.45	387.60
SESAGOA	220.45	225.95	228.75	233.20
RECLTD	174.83	180.85	184.05	189.30
JUBLFOOD	794.00	831.60	848.60	876.10

These stocks can short sell with strict stop-loss.If stocks open at first target then it can be sold for second target.

STOCK	STOP-LOSS	TARGET	TARGET	TARGET
IRB	167.35	164.50	163.35	161.30
DISHTV	79.55	76.95	75.75	73.80
TATASTEEL	437.00	431.00	428.00	423.25
EDUCOMP	276.00	266.90	262.60	255.65
HCLTECH	411.95	400.75	395.65	387.35